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Dr Darko Trifunovic - KOSOVO: WORST STILL TO COME



KOSOVO: WORST STILL TO COME


As Serbia tries to prove that Kosovo Albanians and Serbs cannot live together, the Kosovo Serbs embark on a peaceful boycott, but an incident in Mitrovica leaves one UN policeman dead and hundreds injured, Anes Alic and Igor Jovanovic report for ISN Security Watch.

Anes Alic
(Based in Sarajevo, is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Southeastern Europe and the Executive Director of ISA Consulting)

Igor Jovanovic
(ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Serbia and Kosovo. He is based in Belgrade)

Copyright: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/  (ISN Security Watch- 18/03/2008)

Rioting in the divided town of Kosovo Mitrovica has left one Ukrainian UN policeman dead after suffering fatal injuries in clashes with Serb protesters following a Kosovo Serb attempt to take over a court house in the city.
In Kosovo, it is not at all difficult to foment unrest and create atmospheric incidents to prove that the two groups cannot live in harmony. It is in the interest of Serbian authorities to show to the world that Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs cannot coexist peacefully; while it is now in the interest of Kosovo Albanian authorities to prove the opposite.

The most recent incident in the northern city of Kosovska Mitrovica, divided by Serbs and Albanians, illustrates these points well. More than 100 Serb employees of the local court, including judges, entered the court building last Friday after three weeks of peaceful protests, demanding to be returned to their offices.

They had been driven out of their offices in August 1999 and replaced by international staff and ethnic Albanians who had quit their jobs during the rule of Slobodan Milosevic. The Serbs have continued to work within the Serbian Justice Ministry system, but from their private homes and premises. The international community in Kosovo had earlier announced that this parallel judicial system was soon to be suspended.

The government of Kosovo demanded that the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) evict the "hooligans" from the court. UNMIK turned to the Serbian government to restore order, calling on Belgrade not to "interfere in Serb areas of the new state." Serbian authorities in Belgrade have denied any involvement in the incident. The siege of the court reached its climax on Monday when some 100 UN police troops stormed the court and retook control from the Kosovo Serbs.

The action triggered mass protests by the Serbs, during which at least two UN vehicles were set on fire and police used tear gas to disperse the crowd. According to media in Belgrade, at least 70 Kosovo Serbs were injured in the process. International sources say at least 30 UN and NATO troops sustained injuries.

The UN police backed by NATO troops were forced to withdraw from Serb areas of Mitrovica after being attacked by demonstrators while a UN convoy was transporting some 50 detained protesters from the court.
International troops were also injured in an explosion, thought to have been caused by a hand grenade. Machine gun fire was later heard.

Action plan

In December 2007, two months prior to Kosovo's declaration of independence, the Serbian government adopted an action plan that was to be put in place after Kosovo authorities announced the province's secession. One of key notes from the plan was the strengthening of links with Serbs living in the northern Kosovo enclaves by taking back the authority they lost there in 1999.

The action plan was labeled a state secret, hence its details were never revealed in public. Now, however, it is certain that a portion of the plan referred to the strengthening of Serbia's institutions in Kosovo, especially in the north where the most compact Serb enclaves are located. This area is physically close to Serbia and is home to some 40,000 of the remaining 120,000 Serbs in Kosovo. But Serbia is seeking only the de facto partitioning of Kosovo: After all, should it win an official partition of northern Kosovo, it would lose approximately 80,000 Serbs who live south of the Ibar River, practically surrounded by Albanians.

If Serbia agreed to the partitioning of Kosovo, it would mean abandoning those people, along with numerous important churches and monasteries south of the Ibar. As such, Belgrade will fortify its position in northern Kosovo and as much as possible in the enclaves south of the Ibar.

In the meantime, and perhaps with this in mind, reports say that hundreds of Kosovo Serb families from those south Ibar enclaves have begun selling their homes and settling in northern Kosovo and in Serbia proper. Unconfirmed reports from ethnic Albanian sources claim that Kosovo Serb paramilitary groups have been using scare tactics to force Kosovo Serbs in the south to relocate to the north to make partitioning feasible.

Tricky transfer

Since Kosovo declared unilateral independence on 18 February, Serbia has advocated taking control of the Serb enclaves in the province, which have been under UNMIK protection since 1999 and are not set to be transferred to the new independent Kosovo institutions.

Serbia is calling for the implementation of UN Resolution 1244, which it believes guarantees the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Kosovo Serbs still hold authority in health care, local self-government and energy in these enclaves.

Milan Ivanovic, head of the Serb National Council of northern Kosovo, the most powerful Kosovo Serb organization, told ISN Security Watch that the Serbian government should have started taking over authority in the north much sooner. "That is the only option, because the Serbs from northern Kosovo and south of the Ibar River do not want to accept the institutions run by the Albanians on behalf of the phantom and false state of Kosovo," Ivanovic said.

Commenting on the potentially negative reaction from the Kosovo Albanians to the Serbs' initiative, Ivanovic said that at the moment one should not worry too much about potentially causing violence, but should insist on firmly advocating the necessity of the Serbian state's presence in Kosovo.

"The Albanians have been very convincing before the international community with the policy of threats and violence, unlike the servile official Serbian policy, which had even before the unilateral declaration of independence made it clear that our response would be peaceful, and that we would defend our integrity and sovereignty only with diplomatic means," Ivanovic said.

However, Momcilo Trajkovic, leader of the Serb Resistance Movement, which comprises the Serbs living south of the Ibar River and in the enclaves, is dissatisfied with the Serbian government's moves regarding the takeover of institutions. "It is difficult to assess the government's tactics, as few people are familiar with the details of the action plan. Such activities might lead to the partitioning of Kosovo, but they might also be linked to positioning in the north, aimed at better control of the situation in the territory south of the Ibar," Trajkovic says.

He also said that a policy favoring the division of the province would be ill-advised because 65 percent of the remaining Serbs are located south of the Ibar River and partitioning would expose them to Albanian attacks.

"Partitioning would be disastrous for Serbs living in enclaves. The essence of our battle is not in northern Kosovo, but south of the Ibar. That is where our historical monuments are, the symbols of our statehood and culture, but I fear that the government wants Serbia to stretch from Subotica [in the north] to Kosovska Mitrovica [also in the north] in the future," he said. Trajkovic also criticized Belgrade's decision to give 80 percent of the financial aid meant for all of Kosovo's Serbs to representatives in the north, without consulting enclave leaders.

The internal boycott

So far, Kosovo Serbs have taken several major steps that indicate what their future tactics will be. It seems they are nearly unanimous in boycotting Kosovo institutions, saying that life under ethnic Albanian rule is impossible.

Some 300 Serb policemen in the Kosovo Police Service (KPS) refused to take orders from their superiors and are demanding that they remain part of the UNMIK police chain of command, as they did before Kosovo's declaration of independence. They were then suspended and handed in their weapons and uniforms peacefully.

There are about 800 Serbs in the KPS, some 10 percent of the overall service, which is in proportion with the population of Kosovo; around 400 Serb policemen in the north have remained under UNMIK command, and therefore are not rebelling; some 50 people have taken sick leave or vacations, hence they are still officially members of the KPS; and some 100 workers at the Lipljan prison are demanding that Serbia resolve their status because or they will quit their jobs.

In another case, the Serbian railway company, Zeleznice Srbije, tried to take over the railroad in northern Kosovo in early March. That part of the railroad, on the Lesak-Zvecan route, is very important because it links northern Kosovo with the Serb enclaves in the central part of the province.

Despite attacks on trains in the past, this is believed to be the safest means of transport for the Kosovo Serbs inside Kosovo and to Serbia proper. Since UNMIK has dismissed Belgrade's attempt, the railroad has been inoperative. "If no agreement is reached with UNMIK, an impasse will occur, which will neither allow UNMIK to start organizing traffic by force, because it lacks the manpower, nor the Serbian railway company to operate," Zeleznice Srbije General Manager Milanko Sarancic recently told Belgrade media.

Even Serb members of Kosovo parliament and government are boycotting those institutions. Prior to the declaration of independence, there were 10 Serb members of parliament and two in the government, the constitutionally guaranteed seats for them, even though Kosovo Serbs boycotted the elections. All of them froze their mandates after the 18 February declaration of independence.

However, all Kosovo Serbs employed in Kosovo's public services, such as municipalities, schools and the health-care system, are being delegated and paid by Serbian government, and their salaries are double those of their colleagues in Serbia proper.

Rough ride for EU

Belgrade is fighting its battle on another front by refusing to acknowledge the European mission (EULEX), and pledging its cooperation only to UNMIK, which arrived in Kosovo in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1244. Following the official example, Kosovo Serb civilians are also cooperating only with UNMIK and KFOR, and not with the EU mission (which has not been positioned in northern Kosovo) or the Pristina institutions.

The EU is putting tremendous pressure on UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to mark the end of UNMIK's mission and invite EULEX to take over. However, the secretary-general is also facing an intense drive from Russia and other countries that have sided with Belgrade, which leaves UNMIK on the field.

Last week, the EU admitted that the takeover of authority would require more than the initially planned 120 days. Some members of the EU even think it would be wise for UNMIK to remain in the Serb enclaves.
"The situation is still volatile, particularly north of the river Ibar, in northern Kosovo," the chairman of the EU Council of Ministers Dimitrij Rupel told a press conference at the end of the meetings of the Council of Ministers in Brussels last week.

Rupel said UNMIK should take control of a border between Serbia and Kosovo. The Slovenian foreign minister admitted that the planned transition between UNMIK and EULEX would take longer and will require more effort.

Peter Feith, the international civilian representative in Kosovo, says that his mission is not coming to Kosovo to establish a NATO state, adding that it is politically impossible to admit a mistake and go back to the previous state of affairs.

In a 12 March interview for the Serbian Vecernje Novosti daily, Feith said his first impression after coming to Kosovo was "it could have been worse," adding that the worst was perhaps still to come.

The EU envoy went on to say that the EU mission would attempt to be as "invisible" as possible, adding that it was necessary for the Kosovo cabinet to assume power. In addition, he stressed that if Pristina tried to endanger the Serb community in Kosovo, he would not hesitate to use his powers, even if that meant dismissing and banning the violators of the rules.


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